STUDI POTENSI DAN TANTANGAN BUDIDAYA TANAMAN KARET (HEVEA BRASILIENSIS) DI BALIKPAPAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN ASURANSI INDEKS CURAH HUJAN
Keywords:
Rubber Cultivation, Rainfall Index, Index Insurance, Historical Burn Analysis, Black– Scholes.Abstract
Rubber plants (Hevea brasiliensis) are one of the leading commodities in the agricultural sector that contribute to the local economy of Balikpapan. This study aims to determine the rainfall index insurance premium for rubber crops in Balikpapan City and to analyze rainfall data from 2018 to 2023. The results show that Balikpapan has considerable potential for rubber cultivation, supported by favorable agroclimatic conditions. However, rubber cultivation faces significant challenges such as rain-fall variability and the absence of index-based risk protection schemes for farmers. To address these challenges, the Historical Burn Analysis method and the Black-Scholes model are used to design a rainfall index-based insurance premium. In the first year, for the lowest average rainfall class of 6.02 mm, the insurance premium is estimated at IDR 27,656,506, while for the highest rainfall class of 8.32 mm, the premium increases to IDR 33,439,616. In another estimation for subsequent years, for the lowest average rainfall class of 6.02 mm, the premium is IDR 13,828,253, and for the highest class of 8.32 mm, the premium reaches IDR 16,719,808. These findings indicate that rainfall index insurance is an objective and feasible mitigation strategy to enhance the resilience of rubber farming in Balikpapan.
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